The 2022 study was carried out in the context of very high energy prices following the energy crisis at that time. Whilst prices have subsided since their peak, they remain elevated compared to the previous decade. Based on recent market data and scenarios, this report finds that Pot-Zero could still deliver material consumer savings in the range of £2-8 billion per year during the late 2020s while maintaining investment confidence and aligning with the UK’s decarbonisation objectives.
Wholesale electricity prices in the UK remain among the highest in Europe, due to global gas market volatility, while existing RO certificate (ROC) structures allow generators to receive full support payments alongside high market prices, resulting in excessive consumer costs. CfDs, in contrast, offer price stability for both consumers and generators, with generators paying back excess revenues when market prices exceed the agreed strike price.
The range of consumer savings is based on a range of alternative strike price scenarios (£30, £50, £80/MWh) and market price trajectories. The analysis suggests that the early implementation of Pot-Zero, starting in 2027, maximises potential savings and price stability while preventing windfall overpayments, because the plant supported under RO scheme will start to retire over time. The report concludes that Pot-Zero could represent a practical step to support affordability for consumers while maintaining progress towards a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2035.