Policymaker-led Scenarios and Public Dialogue Facilitate Energy Demand Analysis for Net-zero Futures

This journal article was originally published in Nature Energy.

Demand-side energy reductions have so far received less policy support than supply-side net zero technologies. Here, the authors undertake a demand-focused process for energy scenario analysis, led by policymakers and evaluated through public dialogue. They codesign, describe and model four societal futures that aim to achieve the UK’s 2050 net zero target.

The uniquely close involvement of policymakers leading the project generates markedly different narratives that reflect policymakers’ concerns while still leading to scenarios with reductions in energy demand of 18-45% – exceeding what policies normally suggest. By 2050, technology-focused systems cost 20-100% more than lower-demand ones. While intensive cocreation requires more complex interactions compared with academic-led research, it provides space for important, and otherwise absent, energy demand conversations.

This work demonstrates how engaging policymakers to colead energy scenarios can challenge conventional policy assumptions on energy demand while offering an approach to support global climate mitigation efforts.

Key Takeaways for Policymakers

• Current, supply-side-focused, high-growth futures lead to larger, costlier systems, requiring significantly higher volumes of unproven carbon removals, jeopardizing net zero targets.
• Policymaker-led energy transition pathways with input from academics can significantly reduce energy use, costs and enhance political viability.
• Energy policy should go beyond supply and energy efficiency to drive down energy demand through structural and societal changes encouraging lower use of transport, and less production and consumption of goods.
• Flexibly designed energy infrastructure is needed to avoid lock-in and ensure demand-side-focused energy transition pathways remain an option.

A policy brief has also been written for policymakers, which can be downloaded here.

Publication details

Sharmina, M., Broad, O., Barrett, J. et al. Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures. Nature Energy (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01898-3