This research quantifies the health and economic co-benefits of net zero policies across transport and building sectors, making comparions between net zero and existing UK policy.
The burden of diseases attributable to air pollution is comparable to those of global health risks such as unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking, with many air pollution sources also emitting climate heating gases. In this UK study, UKERC researchers estimate the co-benefits of net zero climate policy on the health benefits of air pollution reduction, increased active travel, outdoor exposure inequalities and indoor air pollution changes. The study focused on two of the largest UK sources, road transport and building heating, with comparisons made between net zero and UK existing policy, referred to as Business as Usual. Particulate matter (PM2.5), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Ozone (O3) projections were made between 2019 and 2050, with emphasis placed upon the net zero co-benefits in 2030 and 2040. We compared the UK Business as Usual scenarios with the Climate Change Committee’s Balanced Net Zero Pathway (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation pathway.
Compared to Business as Usual predictions, BNZP assumptions lead to more electric vehicles, reduced vehicle mileage, more low carbon building heating, and reduced emissions of NO2 and PM2.5. By 2040 under BNZP, compared to Business as Usual, the buildings sector was predicted to be three times more effective at reducing PM2.5 than road transport. To help reduce the inequality gap the net zero building transition was tailored toward those most in need. Outdoor air pollution exposure inequalities prevailed across the socioeconomic spectrum, especially for NO2, but were less pronounced due in part to net zero policies.
Core air quality health benefits for the BNZP buildings sector were £21.3 billion (16.4 to 26.2) by 2050 and £98.4 billion (75.7 to 121.1) by 2154. For the transport sector the health benefits were £9.1 billion (7.0 to 11.2) by 2050 and £36.5 billion (28.1 to 44.9) by 2154. Net zero building sector operating costs did not achieve break-even via efficiency savings, but with greenhouse gas reductions (lower benefits), break-even was achieved in 2052. With additional air pollution health benefits, building-sector time to break-even improved by between 3.1 (2.5 to 4.7) and 6.3 (4.7 to 7.6) years to between 2046 and 2049. Analysis found that removing gas cooking at home, for net zero, may result in greater concentration reductions than outdoor air pollution for NO2. The health and economic co-benefits of net zero policies are large, as are the changes needed, requiring political leadership and public engagement. Our findings are relevant to other countries facing the net zero transition.
