Assessing Electricity Network Capacity Requirements for Industrial Decarbonisation in Great Britain

Journal article originally published in Energy Policy

Abstract

Decarbonising the industrial sector is vital to reach net zero targets. The deployment of industrial decarbonisation technologies is expected to increase industrial electricity demand in many countries, and this may require upgrades to the existing electricity network or new network investment. While the infrastructure requirements to support the introduction of new fuels and technologies in industry, such as hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage are often discussed, the need for additional electricity network investment to meet increasing industrial electricity demands is often overlooked in the literature.

This paper addresses this gap by quantifying the requirements for additional electricity network capacity to support the decarbonisation of industrial sectors across Great Britain. The Net Zero Industrial Pathways model is used to predict the future electricity demand from industrial sites to 2050 which is then compared spatially to the available headroom across the distribution network in Great Britain. The results show that network headroom is sufficient to meet extra capacity demands from industrial sites over the period to 2030 in nearly all regions and network scenarios.

However, as electricity demand rises due to increased electrification across all sectors and industrial decarbonisation accelerates towards 2050, the network will need significant new capacity (71 GW + by 2050) particularly in the central, south, and north-west regions of England, and Wales. Without solving these network constraints, around 65% of industrial sites that are large point sources of emissions would be constrained in terms of electric capacity by 2040. These sites are responsible for 69% of industrial point source emissions.

Therse results have important policy implications.

1. If the distribution network constraints are not addressed in a timely way, then this could result in lost opportunities and investment as companies struggle to compete internationally or decide to relocate to countries with better access to cheap electricity. The current network regulations in Great Britain do not sufficiently encourage network operators to invest in network capacity ahead of need. This should be addressed by future network price controls and the connection process needs to be simplified so that waiting times are reduced.
2. The impacts of network constraints do not affect all industrial sub-sectors or regions of Great Britain equally. Sectors such as Food and Drink, Chemicals, and Other Industry are most likely to be more in need of additional network capacity, and the central, south, and north-west of England and Wales are likely to become constrained before other regions. As the UK Government considers what additional policy support is needed to encourage electrification, it should ensure that all sectors and regions can benefit from the electrification opportunities that enhanced policy support can offer.
3. Modelling of industrial decarbonisation to inform government policy should explicitly consider the impacts of electricity network constraints as well as other infrastructure requirements such as pipelines for hydrogen and carbon dioxide. The likely substantial increase in electricity demands from industry should be factored more explicitly into the various spatial energy plans being developed by the GB NESO.