Thestrategicbehaviourofinvestorsandpolicymakersintheelectricitysystemtransition

This project extends and applies the BRAIN-Energy model (Bounded Rationality Agents Investments model) – see here. This is an agent-based model (ABM) of electricity generation and investment. Its strength lies in the sophisticated representation of an agent’s behaviour strategies and interactions. It is truly novel in that it simultaneously considers the strategies of both policy agents (national government, local government, electricity sector regulator) and well as investor agents (existing utilities plus a range of new entrants). BRAIN-Energy is a multi-regional whole system model that balances electricity supply and demand to give energy, cost, security, and emissions pathways through to 2020.

Within UKERC new information from parallel work on energy financing, governance structures, and the technical operation of the system will be integrated. As a result, new insights will be generated targeting the following questions:

• Which electricity market players win and which lose in the transition to zero-carbon energy system?
• Which government strategies are effective in producing virtuous cycles of investment and innovation?
• In an imperfect world, how much will the energy transition actually cost, and who will pay?
• What are the physical impacts on electricity system operation of investor and government strategies?