News

Despite evidence that 50% reductions in energy demand by 2050 are achievable in the UK, national energy policy (including financial support and broader discourse) remains overwhelmingly supply-side focused. New research has designed, described and modeled four societal futures that aim to achieve the UK’s 2050 net zero target.

In a first-of-its-kind collaboration, new research published in Nature Energy has embedded policymakers into the research team alongside academics. They helped to identify the most important uncertainties and policy priorities – including economic growth, social trust, and political feasibility – that shaped the scenario framework. This “co-creation” approach marked a first-of-its-kind collaboration between researchers and government, producing scenarios that are both scientifically rigorous and politically grounded.

The findings

The study found that by rethinking how people travel, work, heat their homes and consume goods, the UK could cut its total energy demand by between 18% and 45% by 2050. It also found that lower-demand futures would also reduce dependence on carbon dioxide removal technologies by around 70%.

Political, academic and public engagement

Alongside the modelling, the researchers held a series of public dialogues with UK residents to explore how believable each scenario felt and what impact people thought it might have on everyday life. While policymakers often viewed the lower-growth, community-focused “Slow Lane Society” scenario as restrictive, members of the public described it as hopeful and positive — showing how perceptions of desirable futures can differ between experts and citizens.

A number of present and former UKERC academics were involved in the process, including Oliver Broad, John Barrett, Christian Brand, James Price, and Steve Pye. 

On the process, UKERC academic and transport lead for the report, Christian Brand, said:

“Transport remains one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise quickly, so it was particularly rewarding for Oxford to lead that part of the work. This was a genuinely collaborative process — working side-by-side with the civil service to understand how policy is developed in practice. It was a fascinating insight into how the civil service operates and how evidence can feed into real policy thinking.”