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A new study on Kenya’s transport-energy future shows that electrifying transport and investing in public transport can cut emissions and fuel-import dependence without creating an equivalent new dependency on batteries or critical minerals. The paper compares four possible pathways for Kenya to 2050, ranging from weak government intervention and continued reliance on fossil-fuelled private vehicles, to coordinated public transport investment and widespread electrification.

The paper used UKERC’s Transport and Air pollution Model (TEAM) to explore the pathways to 2050. TEAM models how changes in travel behaviour, vehicle technology and energy use affect transport demand, life-cycle carbon emissions and local air pollution across passenger and freight transport, allowing researchers to systematically compare a wide range of policies and policy packages, including those focusing on travel behaviour and demand, vehicle ownership and use, fiscal, pricing, eco-driving, fuel obligations, speed limits, technology investment, ‘official’ vs ‘real world’ emissions gaps, and zero emission or clean air zones.

Three key results:

1. Public transport plus electrification delivers the biggest emissions gains: The “Kunawiri” pathway, built around strong public transport planning, accessible finance and electrified mass transit, produces the lowest direct transport emissions by 2050. By contrast, the “Kubaya” pathway, with limited government intervention and continued reliance on internal combustion vehicles, reaches around 25 MtCO₂e in direct emissions by 2050. This suggests that electrification alone is not enough: the structure of the transport system matters.

2. Critical material demand rises, but remains manageable: High-electrification pathways increase demand for critical materials, reaching around 0.13 Mt by 2050, compared with 0.07 Mt in the lowest-electrification scenario. Battery materials and non-aluminium metals become a much larger share of critical material demand in electrified futures, rising to 42-48% by 2050 in high-electrification pathways. However, embodied emissions from producing these materials remain far below direct transport emissions.

3. Battery imports do not simply replace fossil-fuel imports: A major policy concern is whether cutting oil imports could create a new dependency on imported batteries. The paper finds that this risk is smaller than expected. In high-electrification pathways, additional battery-pack import costs offset only 12-19% of the annual fuel-import savings. By 2050, fuel and battery import exposure in the high-electrification pathways remains far below the fossil-fuel-heavy pathway.

Policy implications:

Kenya can reduce emissions, improve energy security and manage material risks, but only with coordinated transport, energy and industrial policy. First, public investment and regulation matter. Electrified buses, bus rapid transit, rail and safe walking and cycling infrastructure can reduce emissions while avoiding lock-in to car-dependent urban growth. Second, material demand should be planned for early, especially aluminium, copper and battery materials. This means strengthening recycling systems, battery end-of-life regulation and regional supply chain partnerships. Third, Kenya’s industrial strategy should link e-mobility with domestic assembly, component manufacturing and skills development, so that the transition supports jobs and supply-chain resilience rather than deepening import dependence.

Professor Christian Brand, UKERC Researcher and a designer of TEAM, said: “As the ‘godfather of TEAM’ that was developed in UKERC over more than a decade ago, it’s exciting to see the model being used to examine transport transitions beyond the UK. The Kenyan analysis shows that electrification is most powerful when it is planned as part of a wider transport system. Investing in electric mass transit can cut emissions and fuel imports, while giving policymakers the evidence they need to manage material demand and build more resilient supply chains.”

Read the study in full.