This Working Paper explores the uncertainties in heat infrastructure development in the UK. This work was undertaken as part of the UK Energy Strategies Under Uncertainty project.

Meeting the 80% carbon emission reduction target by 2050 is likely to require heat related emissions of CO2 from buildings are near zero by 2050 and there is a 70% reduction in emissions from industry (from 1990 levels). This will require laying the foundations for these emission reductions by 2030. A review of the barriers and uncertainties associated with the transition to a low-carbon heat supply in the UK out to 2030 were explored. This work was commissioned as part of the UK Energy Research Centre’s ‘Energy strategy under Uncertainty’ project undertaken to synthesise evidence on the range and nature of the risks and uncertainties facing UK energy policy and the achievement of its goals to reduce carbon emissions, enhance energy security while ensuring affordability.