This systematic evidence review forms part of the wider UKERC Phase 3 integrating project on Disruption and Continuity. The purpose of this review is to explore the potential for different models used in energy system scenarios to represent and assess discontinuous or disruptive change. The review also has a focus on how discontinuities have been represented in model runs and scenarios to date.

The review will first gather evidence on the range of scenario and modelling exercises, addressing the following key questions:

  • To what extent have energy scenario and modelling exercises tried to represent and explore disruptive / discontinuous change in energy systems?
  • How have scenario and modelling exercises distinguished between disruptive and more incremental change?

The review will then seek information on the relationships between modelling/scenario approaches and the ability to represent discontinuity, addressing the following subsidiary questions:

  • Is the ability of models and scenarios to handle discontinuity / disruption dependent on the way they are structured or the way they are used in practice?
  • Are particular models, approaches or techniques better suited to exploring disruptive change, or incremental change?

Further details can be found in the project scoping note below:

Disruption and Continuity_Scoping note