The decarbonisation of heat demand, for the domestic sector in the UK, is expected to require significant deployment of air source heat pumps (ASHP), and heat networks (other technologies being minor contributors to decarbonisation).
For air source heat pumps, in particular, the UK Government policy is for installations to reach 600,000/year by 2030. At present, the rate of deployment is significantly lower than that.
Smart meter technology enables, potentially, a good understanding of domestic heat demand. However, these demand profiles are influenced by the technology of heat delivery, which is predominantly gas-fired condensing boilers with a wet radiator system, and either on-demand hot water (from a combi-boiler) or a hot water cylinder.
A transition from natural gas, to a more decarbonised heat source, has implications for heat network demand and electricity network demand. To model the implications of widespread adoption of new technologies, requires new demand profiles which these networks will experience. At present, uptake of these technologies is limited and so measured demand profiles are relatively low in number and not fully representative of the GB domestic market.