Research project on the energy implications of transport, providing new insights into the transition to electric vehicles and the ‘Dieselgate’ scandal
Ever wondered how transport decision-making varies across individual (consumers), organisational (fleet managers, local authorities) and policy (central government) levels? And how these decisions impact on energy systems? If so then this project may provide new evidence on answering current policy questions such as the impacts and energy/transport interdependencies of road transport electrification, air pollution mitigation and dwindling energy tax revenues.
The project is developing and using a number of system modelling tools and socio-technical approaches. The Transport Energy and Air pollution Model (TEAM) was used to investigate the ‘Dieselgate’ scandal by exploring unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the UK.
It has also been used to examine the timing, scale and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in the UK car market from a consumer segmentation perspective.
We are also developing a Scottish version of TEAM, STEAM. The Scottish TEAM is now disaggregated by local authority area, enabling us to explore local policy options around climate, energy, and air quality ‘co-benefits’. In collaboration with the Scottish ClimateXChange and the Scottish government we are creating policy scenarios to inform future policy making in the transport and energy sectors.
Beyond dieselgate: the implications on unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom, by Christian Brand
Making a difference?
Further research undertaken during Phase 3 of UKERC focused on exploring decision-making across individual (consumers), organisational (fleet managers, local authorities) and policy (central government) spheres in three ways.
- First, work at Oxford investigated the ‘Dieselgate’ scandal by exploring unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the UK. We found that the impacts and damages on human health of current levels of ‘real world’ air pollutant emissions in the UK are significant. We also found that future de-dieselization of the vehicle fleet can have significant air quality benefits while showing few carbon disbenefits. Electrification showed the largest ‘co-benefits’ but needs transformative approach by policy, industry and consumers.
- Second, a collaboration between Oxford and Leeds examined the timing, scale and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in the UK car market from a consumer segmentation perspective. The study found that road transport electrification by 2050 requires major changes in ultra low emission vehicle (ULEV) supply, user demand and policy incentives. It highlighted that in the UK (and Scotland) the fleet and company car markets will drive early transition to ULEVs, and that ramping up a fast charging network and equivalent value support to consumers are key to drive private market. As with the dieslegate study the potential for ‘co-benefits’ on human health in cities are huge.
- Third, in a collaboration with Scottish ClimateXChange and Scottish government we explored the roles of lifestyle change and socio-cultural norms vs. electrification and phasing out of conventional fossil fuel vehicles, suggesting that lifestyle change alone can have a comparable and earlier effect on transport carbon and air quality emissions than a transition to ULEVs with no lifestyle change. Yet, both strategies have limits to meeting legislated carbon budgets, which may only be achieved with a combined strategy of radical change in travel patterns, mode and vehicle choice, vehicle occupancy and on-road driving behaviour with high electrification and earlier-than-planned phasing out of conventional fossil fuel vehicles.
Publications
- Brand, C., Anable, J., Morton, C. (2018) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach. Energy Efficiency. [in press]
- Li, P., Zhao, P., Brand, C. (2018) Future energy use and CO2 emissions of urban passenger transport in China: A travel behavior and urban form based approach. Applied Energy, 211, 820-842. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.022.
- Brand, C., Cluzel, C., Anable, J., 2017 Modeling the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a consumer segmentation approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice 97, 121-136.
- Brand, C. 2016. Beyond Dieselgate: Implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom. Energy Policy 97, October 2016, 1-12.
- Brand, C., Anable, J., and Morton, C. 2018. Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach. Energy Efficiency. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9678-9
- Neves, A., Brand, C. (2018) Assessing the potential for carbon emissions savings from replacing short car trips with walking and cycling using a mixed GPS-travel diary approach. Transp. Res.: Part A: Pol. Practice. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.08.022.
- Brand, C. and Hunt, A. (2018) The health costs of air pollution from cars and vans, Final Report. University of Oxford, University of Bath & UKERC for Global Action Plan, London.
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